The common denominator fed by the concepts of New Year and "Economy" is "expectation management". Regardless of how bad the previous year was, more beautiful and better ones are always desired for the coming year; The level of belief that much better decisions and outputs will be produced than the previous one is "fully charged". If we didn't have a lover in the past, the new one will be certain. If we lost in the stock market in the old, we will definitely win in the new one. The new year is a concept that we embrace a priori as we are struck by a pair of green eyes smiling without any data. With what do we measure our performance in return for the time consumed while leaving a year behind? The sales turnover we missed? Caribbean vacation we can't do? IPhone 12 we can't get? Is time that cheap really?
We talk about killing time; but it is time that kills us. Alphonse Allais
According to the traditional understanding, one of the rare elements whose flow cannot be intervened, stretched or shortened and which is outside the control area of humans is "time". Each person's available time is fixed, and he has no control or savings over him. This concept, which cannot be stored or purchased, but consumed as crudely as possible, is the most important source of human awareness. Aristotle defines time as the number of action according to priority and later. Besides, time is necessarily continuous, because if it is not so, the concepts of before and after become impossible, time is continuous, something that is continuous is something that belongs to motion (Grandfather Paradox).
Classical physicists simply define time as the progress of the future from the past to the present. In the second principle of thermodynamics, it is assumed that in a closed system, the entropy of the system remains constant or increases. Used to examine irreversible situations (such as broken glass beaker). Quantumists claim that time is discontinuous and discrete. According to classical mechanics, time is the same everywhere. Einstein demonstrated with his "Relativity Theory" that time differs according to an observer's reference point. So no matter where we look at it, time is our most valuable resource and has no substitute. In order to use this resource efficiently, we first need to realize that it is as scarce, ie limited, as in the classical definition of "endless needs, scarce resources" in economics books.
As we divide time into periods such as childhood-youth and old age in our own life cycle, possible bad days (illness, unemployment, accident, etc.) or good days ahead of "today" in the course of time (Taiwan tour, new safe 3 series, postmodern slavery order) We make savings on our own (if we are lucky enough to do) for the entrepreneurial idea that will give, etc.). We index our money to various investment instruments in order to prevent these savings from protecting their purchasing power and to prevent our money from becoming a stamp against inflation that never comes out of our lives. Of course, this is usually done with the psyche, a state dominated by herd psychology. Since the majority are not financial literate, they make decisions by following people who read and write on their behalf. Likewise, while it is accepted that individuals in the society expect 4-5 times of earnings in a very short time (tomorrow if possible) by purchasing only land without producing any value, but when a company does this, it can be lynched under the "rent economy" hypocritically but accepted by the majority of society there is an understanding. Let's continue the article, assuming that it is really pure pure people who only channel their savings into investment instruments to protect their purchasing power against inflation. It is clear and understandable that at levels where interest rates are lower than the inflation rate, savings are directed towards non-bank instruments. Likewise, the reason for the emergence of the concept of interest is based on the argument that money loses value over time. In a financial transaction (lender-borrower) money loses value over time, with or without inflation. Interest is an opportunity cost of this. When we look at commodity prices in 2020, we can say that only gold earns its investors. Of course, we should also take into account the following inflation rates of the countries.
Turkey until the end of the year at the beginning of the year to do if the gold price analysis in particular has increased 52% and Turkstat According to that in describing the inflation rate will be 11.9% on an annual average, it seems that under indexed investment had brought 40%. Of course, we can easily say that the actual inflation rate is above 30% for those who believe that these disclosed data are not correct, except for those who manipulate the data. Even in this case, we can easily say that gold maintains or even increases its purchasing power.
We can say that the stock exchange provides a return of 18%, and when we cleanse it from inflation, it actually causes a loss of -12% for its investors. Of course, this Turkey in particular. The inflation average in developed countries where interest rates are between minus and 2% is around 1.5%. For example, the S&P 500 provided around 12% return to its investors. When we clear this gain from inflation, we can see a net gain of 9-10%. As we can read from the chart below, there is an expectation that the world economy will contract by 4.4% in 2020. There is a very positive expectation that this contraction will be compensated in 2021, and therefore the world economy will settle in 2022. I say very positive because the economic destruction caused by the pandemic II. It is the deepest crisis after the World War. Despite the support provided by governments to reduce unemployment, it is predicted that the unemployment rate can be reduced to a maximum of 7% in 2020.
While we say that the Covid 19 effect will decrease at the end of 2021, we can say that some companies whose financials deteriorate in this process may also go bankrupt. In the past year, with the liquidity released by the Central Banks to the market close to 9 trillion, the money consisting of 13 trillion incentives and subsidies distributed by the states under the support mechanisms (which corresponds to 20% of the national income in developed countries and 6% of the developing countries), nor to real sector investments. nor can we easily say that it does not turn to commodity exchanges. While there is cheap and abundant money in the world, it is quite thought-provoking that the real sector has not been able to withdraw from this trend. On the other hand, it would not be very misleading to expect an upward trend in commodity prices in 2021.
It should not be ignored that the bubble prices in the stocks also have the risk of bursting in the near future, unless there is a significant increase in productivity at the output point when the values of digital companies are folded but there is no movement on the part of real product producers - we also attribute the 18% shrinkage in the above production amounts to the decrease in the capacity of the companies. Of course, for this, central banks, especially the FED, need to increase the rate of interest. It is very difficult to predict when they will do this. We can also expect states that increase public spending and incentives to support markets and thus make record borrowings, to make regulations as consumption-reducing measures and tax increases after the pandemic. We can predict that there will be changes in wealth with the effect of habits that we expect consumers to change in 2021 and beyond.
You can take a look at the ZPZCY Index (The Rich's Money, ) here. It is really hard to explain rationally how Elon Musk increased his fortune from $ 29 billion to $ 170 billion in one of the worst years in history. We cannot just attribute this to the fact that the world is switching to electric vehicles, or that the Chinese factory that has increased its capacity has been activated. Tesla is never alone in this competition, and I think that even German vehicles will easily get ahead of him in this regard (electric vehicle) in a short time. In fact, new players from outside the sector will also enter the sector: like Apple. The year 2020 was one of the peak years of income inequality. Looking at the table below, we can easily say that if the total war waged to combat the pandemic this year is not fought for income injustice, the gap will gradually expand.
Expectations for the 2021 economy are quite positive, as can be seen in the tables below. I in particular have wound wrap it-also Turkey for the corporate sector this year, I do not think can be made new investments with interest rates, monitoring of bank shares I do not expect the growth of credit and bottom Taken from the level close to 2022 and edebilirim- recommended to take position for the post, if domestic financial markets Covidien I think the expectations can be met with the approval of the use of the vaccine, the clarification of the US presidency, and the conclusion of Brexit and the relative predictability. The service and retail sector, which accounts for 80% of the national revenues of developed countries, will follow a positive course in 2021. Likewise, so are the tourism and aviation sectors. Most tech companies will continue to grow independently of the vaccine.
The total economic size of the world seems to be around $ 84 trillion by the end of 2020. When a growth of 5% occurs, it corresponds to a GDP increase of $ 4.2 trillion, most of which will be created by technology companies. When we look at the Covid 19 balance sheet, we see that a total of 1.84m people died from this diagnosis. If we accept that the data are correct, we see that Covid 19 in a total of 84.9m cases reached a lethality rate of 2.16%. When we examine the table below, we realize that approximately 15 million people die from ischemic heart disease and stroke each year. We see more than 3 million people die each year from diabetes and kidney disease. Approximately 35 million people die annually from the following 10 categorical diseases with the most deaths each year in the world.
In other words, my brothers who think that their genetics will be attacked with this motive for the Covid 19 vaccine, as if they were from Queen Elizabeth or Einstein, and who hit the "atom" injection in the slightest flu, didn't we all have the chip already? Aren't we all captured by social media and technology companies? Have we not shared all kinds of information about ourselves (including mms) on many platforms for years? So we modify our own chip every day with our own hands. Other than marketing, perception management, and control, who should do our shitty mediocre brain? What should Bill Gates do? The man is the third richest person in the world because he has already put the Microsoft chip on us. What is this bustle? What tragedy is it to see the underlying narcissist and as well as naive hysteria by someone who is chipped to the brim? If a chip is indeed to be inserted, let it be, at least we will raise our IQ average with artificial intelligence.
Post-ovid-19 New Work Order
The pandemic has had a catalytic effect, especially when the "remote working" and "flexible working" methods are settled in more companies and their technology level is upgraded or upgraded. It has also relatively increased technology literacy. In particular, Turkey's former boss of this new order generation family business is very difficult to accept, though unfortunately it does not look like Covidien-19 vial stopped. In addition, although they are not even remotely related to the concept of the package contents served to the press in PR studies, they do not feel a secret pleasure from being visible in this virtual world like a "cotton princess" or "Henry Ford".
The concepts of "white collar" and "blue collar", in which employees are classified on the basis of organizational criteria, are now out of date. Although there are concepts such as gold, gray and green collar that have been added recently, the white-blue collar distinction continues to be used predominantly in the main classification. Just as these existing concepts need to be modified, it seems like it is time to include the new concept of the "digital collar" in the management and organization literature. In the short period of time that robots will start doing blue-collar work, it should be considered whether the person writing the code should be classified as "digital collar" or "blue collar" from morning to evening. I think that the administrative sciences or the proletariat will work on this issue.
Everyone has learned by experience that everything that can be done online can be done remotely and has to adapt to this situation quickly. This situation freed "labor mobilization" by removing borders, visas and physical spaces. While the rate of working remotely in the world was around 5% before the pandemic, during the pandemic this rate increased to 65%. I guess that when normalization occurs, we will not stay at this level, but we will see at least 20% remote working rates. According to ILO data, there are 3.3 billion working workforce in the world (42% of the world population). In this case, you could be one of the 660 million people working remotely. If you update your talents and competencies according to the needs of the digital age, you can fall into this lucky category. I call it the lucky category because around 2 billion employees in the world work informally without social security and other rights. The number of young people aged 15-24 who are neither in education nor in work is 270 million.
Let's take a look at whether technology will provide people with new business areas as Covid-19 blows the share values of technology companies. There are those who argue that artificial intelligence can create more new jobs than it destroys, and those who argue the opposite are not few. We can easily say that every business line will be affected by artificial intelligence and robot technologies. This includes manual professions where repetitive tasks can be automated thanks to artificial intelligence. Like coding! What is it? If you think learning to code will give you an advantage in the future, you are wrong. Software developers have been claimed to be at risk with the claim that coding will be done by machines in the near future, and I think it is possible. If you are not a doctor or surgeon working in the emergency services and specialties, you should start to worry about the practitioner. Most lawyers and lawyers should also be concerned. Routine legal transactions will be done easily with computer software. If you do not do very special and creative work, my dear architect brother, your profession is also under threat. Even today building design can be easily done on the computer. My dear financial advisors and accountants brothers, your group is already the most risky if you don't have special skills like “tax evasion”. It seems that fighter jet pilots are coming to an end, too. Unmanned vehicles will be everywhere. Policing will also disappear. I guess you don't intend to compete with a robot that can arrive on the scene in seconds? The need for routine work in engineering will disappear. While TRIZ in its current form can do many things, you can calculate what will happen when you add the speed of learning artificial intelligence. Realtors (I didn't like you at all
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